As the 2025 US holiday shopping season draws to a close, superficial data suggests that return pressure may have eased. However, looking at a longer timeframe, the real challenge is far from over. Multiple studies and platform monitoring results indicate that the peak of returns for the year will still occur after Christmas, placing even greater demands on the return processing capabilities of cross-border sellers.
The decline in return rates during the first half of the holiday season does not mean the pressure has disappeared.
According to data released by Adobe Analytics, from November 1st to December 12th, 2025, the online return rate for US holiday shopping decreased by approximately 2.5% year-on-year. However, in the seven days following Cyber Monday, returns only decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a significantly narrower decline.
Adobe points out that this decline is more related to consumers postponing their return decisions, platforms extending return windows, and some product categories still being in their gift-giving cycle, and should not be simply interpreted as an easing of the return problem. In fact, the return cycle during the holiday season inherently exhibits a distinctly "delayed" characteristic.
The real peak season for returns in the US begins after Christmas.
Historical data and model predictions indicate that a surge in returns after Christmas remains a certainty. Adobe's analysis, based on trillions of retail visits, predicts:
Returns after Christmas will increase by 25%–35% compared to the previous period.
Returns in the first two weeks of January will still be 8%–15% higher than normal.
The last six consecutive days of December alone could see the release of approximately one-eighth of the year's returns.
This pattern has repeated itself in multiple years, especially in categories with strong gift attributes such as toys, apparel, and home furnishings. Even with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in holiday spending in 2025 and discounts still available for some categories, the pattern of concentrated returns remains unchanged.
Peak returns bring more than just quantity pressure.
For cross-border sellers, the challenge of peak returns lies not only in the sheer number of returned items, but also in the following practical issues:
First, processing time is put to a much greater test. During peak return periods, a slowdown in quality inspection, warehousing, sorting, and subsequent processing can easily lead to warehouse congestion, impacting normal operations.
Secondly, costs and losses increase. If returned goods cannot be inspected and reprocessed promptly, they can easily miss the resale window, especially for seasonal items; delays can cause inventory value to decline rapidly.
Furthermore, cross-regional communication and execution become more difficult. The period after holidays is the busiest time for North American warehouse staff; if warehouse management systems and operational processes are not mature enough, problems are often amplified.
Therefore, facing a certainty of peak returns, sellers need to proactively establish local US return warehouses with stable processing capabilities.
US local return warehouses become a key support during peak periods.
At the point of concentrated return release, shipping goods back to China for processing often faces problems such as long transportation cycles, high costs, and significant customs clearance uncertainties. In contrast, completing return quality inspection, sorting, and subsequent processing locally in the US has become the mainstream choice for an increasing number of sellers.
This has transformed U.S. return warehouses from mere "receiving and transit points" into crucial hubs for peak-season inventory buffering, product reprocessing, and logistics coordination.
U-Speed's US return warehouse Layout and Processing Capacity
To meet the actual needs of peak return periods in the U.S., U-Speed has established return warehouses in both the East and West coasts.
In the East, the New Jersey return warehouse has a total area of 7,250 square meters and a daily processing capacity of over 20,000 items.
In the West, the Los Angeles return warehouse also has an area of 7,250 square meters and can process over 10,000 returns daily.
Both warehouses are equipped with forklifts, light and heavy-duty shelving, fire protection and monitoring systems, and implement 24-hour security and CCTV management, ensuring a relatively stable operating environment during peak periods and providing a fundamental guarantee for centralized returns.
From Manpower to Efficiency, Supporting Stable Operations During Peak Seasons
In actual return processing, hardware is only the foundation; execution and management capabilities are even more critical. U-Speed's US returns warehouse employs a collaborative model combining a local US operations team and a Chinese management team. The Chinese returns management team establishes unified processes and standards, while the local Chinese team in the US handles on-site operations, and a professional customer service team provides coordination and feedback.
Regarding timeliness, U-Speed's US returns service achieves approximately 2 days for return quality inspection and 3-5 days for return logistics. During the peak return period after the holidays, this helps sellers quickly confirm inventory and make subsequent decisions.
Beyond Returns, Forming a Complete US Logistics Service Loop
In addition to returns processing, U-Speed extends its services to the US cross-border forward logistics sector, covering multiple stages including first-leg shipping, warehousing, drop shipping, and returns. This integrated service model helps reduce communication costs associated with multiple parties and maintains overall logistics stability during peak return periods.
Adobe's forecast data shows that the short-term decline in return rates during the holiday season does not change the long-term trend of concentrated returns after Christmas. For cross-border sellers, the real issue isn't whether there will be returns, but rather the ability to process them efficiently, quickly, and reliably during peak periods.
In this context, US return warehouses, with their stable processing capabilities, clear processes, and dual-team collaboration mechanisms, are becoming crucial support for sellers coping with holiday return surges.
