The year-end sales season is a critical milestone for cross-border sellers aiming to boost their annual performance. In 2026, this sales window is not only expected to expand in volume but also to extend in duration.

According to Bain & Company’s latest 2026 U.S. holiday shopping outlook, U.S. retail holiday sales for November and December are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time—a 4.5% year-over-year increase. Non-store sales are expected to grow by 9%, accounting for approximately 60% of the overall sales growth. Notably, 43% of surveyed consumers anticipate that clothing will be their largest holiday season expense.

A report by Adobe Analytics on 2026 U.S. holiday shopping forecasts that online spending in the U.S. will reach $284 billion during November and December, up 9.2% from $260 billion in the same period of 2025. Adobe Analytics also highlights a noticeably extended shopping cycle, with consumers beginning their holiday shopping as early as mid-October.

For cross-border sellers, this means that strategic planning for this year's peak season should begin well in advance.

However, this raises a question: faced with a longer shopping cycle and fiercer competition, what steps can sellers take to effectively convert this sales opportunity into actual orders and profits?

Look beyond Black Friday; adopt a peak-season mindset early

In the past, many sellers focused their peak-season preparations primarily around Black Friday and Cyber Monday—stocking up, setting discounts, and running ads—while waiting for a concentrated surge in orders.

Consumer trends are shifting, however. Many overseas consumers begin planning their holiday purchases as early as October. For sellers, this means the peak season should no longer be viewed merely as a few major promotional days; instead, the period from October through December should be treated as a continuous sales cycle.

Before the peak of the sales season arrives, sellers can take several proactive steps:

First, identify key products. Not every SKU warrants the same budget allocation during the peak season. By analyzing historical sales volume, profit margins, inventory levels, and return rates, sellers can categorize products into traffic drivers, flagship products, and high-margin items, thereby concentrating limited advertising and promotional resources on the products with the greatest potential.

Second, test promotional strategies in advance. A longer sales cycle actually provides sellers with more room for trial and error. Before the peak of the major promotion, you can test various price points, promotional offers, ad creatives, and product bundles, using the preliminary data to decide where to focus your subsequent investment.

Finally, ensure you are prepared regarding inventory and fulfillment. If a product suddenly sees a surge in orders, the biggest risk isn't a lack of sales, but rather an inability to keep up with inventory, warehousing, or logistics demands. This is especially critical for categories with high year-end demand, such as apparel and footwear, where assessing inventory and fulfillment capabilities in advance is essential.

An increase in orders does not necessarily mean an increase in profit.

During year-end sales events, sellers often fixate on GMV (Gross Merchandise Value). However, for sellers who have already achieved a certain scale, the bottom-line profit is far more important than the total sales volume.

After all, sales growth during major promotions often comes with higher costs for promotions, advertising, and fulfillment. Deloitte has noted that consumers remain highly price-conscious regarding 2026 holiday shopping, actively comparing brands and retailers to find the best value for money.

This raises a practical question for sellers: how can you avoid seeing profit margins shrink as order volumes rise due to aggressive promotions?

Beyond controlling product and advertising costs, sellers should also pay attention to a frequently overlooked factor: return costs. This is particularly relevant for apparel; a Bain survey indicates that 43% of consumers expect to spend the most on clothing during the holiday season.

Higher order volumes mean a likely increase in post-sales inquiries and returns once the promotion ends.

The real stress test for return processing comes after the promotion ends.

For cross-border sellers, the "end" of a major promotion often arrives later than consumers realize. By the time a consumer receives, tries on, compares, or gifts an item purchased in November or December—and subsequently decides to return it—the business has often already moved into the next phase.

Consequently, the seller's peak-season workflow evolves: a surge in orders → increased shipments → consumer receipt → rise in post-sales inquiries → a wave of returns.

Without a plan for handling returns, the sales revenue painstakingly generated earlier could be eroded by return costs, cross-border shipping fees, and product depreciation.

For sellers targeting the US market, establishing local return-handling capabilities allows returned items to be received and processed domestically first, with subsequent disposition determined based on the product's condition. For instance, U-Speed’s US returns warehouse offers services such as return receipt, quality inspection, repair and refurbishment, repackaging, and relabeling; eligible items can even be processed for resale.

For sellers, this is not merely about designating an additional return address; it is about proactively planning how to handle returns following major sales events.

Opportunities surrounding the 2026 year-end sales season extend well beyond the few days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. This extended consumption cycle presents both an opportunity and a test of supply chain and operational capabilities for sellers.

Only by selecting products in advance, strategically pacing promotions, preparing for inventory and fulfillment needs, and incorporating post-sale return management into the peak-season plan can sellers truly translate sales growth into sustainable business results.