Will UK consumers keep spending big this Black Friday?

According to a recent consumer survey released by Shopify, the outlook may not be as optimistic as one might expect.

Shopify surveyed 18,000 consumers across nine countries and found that UK consumers plan to spend an average of £165 during this year's Black Friday weekend—down from £181 last year. While budgets have tightened, there is another shift that sellers should pay close attention to: AI is playing an increasingly significant role in consumers' purchasing decisions.

For cross-border sellers gearing up for the UK Black Friday rush, this implies that—beyond pricing and advertising—AI is emerging as a new channel for brand exposure.

UK Black Friday spending turns cautious, but AI-driven shopping gains momentum

The planned average spend of £165 represents a drop of approximately 9% compared to last year's £181. This does not mean UK consumers are unwilling to spend; rather, it suggests they are likely to be more prudent with their budgets when faced with Black Friday promotions.

In the past, consumers might have placed an order immediately after seeing an advertisement, a discount, or a platform recommendation. Now, however, they have a new "shopping assistant": AI.

Shopify’s survey reveals that 64% of UK consumers will use AI to assist with at least one shopping task during the holiday season. However, AI currently plays primarily a "decision-support" role; only 28% of surveyed consumers are willing to entrust AI with the actual task of placing an order.

In other words, consumers may use AI to find products, compare options, and get recommendations, but the final decision on whether to purchase remains their own.

This represents a crucial shift for sellers: while AI has not yet replaced the consumer, it has begun to influence *what* they buy.

Why does AI create opportunities for independent brands?

In the past, independent brands promoting themselves in overseas markets often faced a common hurdle: consumers simply didn't know who they were.

Major brands benefit from high visibility, substantial budgets, and extensive advertising resources, whereas smaller brands often require continuous ad investment just to capture consumer attention. The rise of AI-driven shopping, however, is changing this landscape where visibility was once the exclusive domain of big brands. Shopify data shows that 76% of heavy AI users prefer independent or niche brands, compared to just 45% of general consumers.

Furthermore, among orders generated via AI recommendations, the average order value for independent brands is about 14% higher than for standard orders, and their conversion rate is approximately 50% higher.

What does this mean?

In the past, consumers often had to know a brand before actively searching for it. Now, however, they can simply ask AI: "I’m looking for a product for a specific situation—what do you recommend?"

In this context, brand recognition is no longer the sole deciding factor. As long as a brand has clear positioning, comprehensive product information, and meets the consumer's specific needs, independent brands have a real chance of appearing in AI-generated recommendations.

For small and medium-sized cross-border sellers, this represents a new channel worth targeting early on.

For UK Black Friday promotions, look beyond just the discount percentage

During Black Friday, consumers are bombarded with promotional messages—"Black Friday Sale," "20% OFF," "50% OFF," and so on. While these details are certainly important, relying solely on price—when every other seller is doing the same—makes it difficult to achieve true differentiation.

This is especially true as consumers increasingly use AI to assist with shopping; sellers need to ensure their products are "easily understood."

For instance:

Who is the product for?

What problem does it solve?

What advantages does it have over similar products?

In what scenarios is it best used?

What are the key features regarding materials, dimensions, and functionality?

What kind of service can the consumer expect after purchase?

The clearer this information is, the easier it is for consumers to determine if the product is right for them—and the easier it is for AI to understand the brand and the product.

Therefore, for this year's UK Black Friday content marketing, rather than simply emphasizing low prices, focus on answering the questions consumers actually care about. Help consumers understand why the product is worth buying, while also making it easier for AI to comprehend what you are selling.

Once the traffic arrives, the after-sales experience must not fall short

Of course, AI-driven exposure is merely the beginning of the consumer's purchasing journey. During peak shopping seasons like Black Friday and Christmas, a surge in order volume is often accompanied by a rise in return requests. For product categories such as apparel, footwear, and headwear, consumers may initiate returns if the size, style, color, or actual product experience fails to meet their expectations.

It is a pity when sellers invest heavily in customer acquisition to secure orders, only to suffer inventory losses on potentially salvageable goods due to delayed return processing or an inability to inspect and resell items promptly.

Therefore, the brand experience must extend beyond the point of purchase to include the after-sales phase.

Cross-border sellers targeting the UK market can prepare by establishing local return-handling solutions in advance. For instance, U-Speed’s UK return warehouse offers services such as return receipt and quality inspection. For items like clothing and footwear, they provide additional processing—including steaming, checking, and folding—to enable the resale of eligible goods, helping sellers manage returns more efficiently during the peak Black Friday season.

This Black Friday, sellers should look beyond just spending figures.

Data from Shopify highlights two shifts in the UK Black Friday landscape that sellers should note:

On one hand, UK consumers are approaching Black Friday budgets more cautiously, with planned per-capita spending dropping from £181 to £165. On the other hand, AI is increasingly influencing consumer purchasing decisions and creating new exposure opportunities for independent brands.

Consequently, competition this Black Friday may not simply be a race to offer the lowest discounts.

Success will likely go to those who can help consumers quickly understand their products—thereby increasing the likelihood of AI recommendations—and those who excel at delivering a seamless experience both before and after the sale, ultimately fostering true customer retention.

For independent brands and small-to-medium-sized cross-border sellers, this approach could represent a promising new strategy for this year's Black Friday.