Every year, Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) serve as a critical juncture for cross-border sellers to boost their year-end sales. To capture traffic and increase conversion rates, many sellers plan their promotional campaigns well in advance, leveraging deep discounts to entice consumers to make purchases.

However, this year, beyond focusing on order growth, sellers must also carefully weigh another factor: will the increase in sales volume generated by these discounts be enough to cover the cost of the price reductions—as well as the potential losses from post-promotion returns?

Bain & Company forecasts that U.S. sales during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period could exceed $85 billion by 2026—an 8.75% year-over-year increase—with over 90% of consumers planning to participate in these promotional events. Meanwhile, Adobe projects that U.S. online holiday spending will reach $275.1 billion by 2026, with "Cyber Week" online sales expected to hit $47.5 billion. For some product categories, discount depths may deepen from an initial ~14% at the start of the peak season to a peak of 30%.

As the scale of these major sales events continues to grow, so does the intensity of discount-based competition. For cross-border sellers, while order growth is undoubtedly important, overlooking the costs associated with post-promotion returns can lead to final profit margins that fall short of expectations.

Three Often-Overlooked Return-Related Costs Following a Black Friday Sales Surge

During Black Friday, discounts effectively stimulate consumer purchases; however, a completed order does not necessarily mean the transaction is finalized. In categories like apparel and footwear, in particular, consumers may still initiate returns after receiving their items—whether due to sizing issues or because the product did not meet their expectations.

For sellers, the operational pressures brought on by these major sales events often persist well after the promotions have concluded.

1. The Cost of Discounts: Higher Sales Volume Does Not Guarantee Higher Profits

Consider an item originally priced at $50; if it is discounted by 30% during Black Friday, the selling price drops to $35. Even if sales volume increases, the revenue earned per unit decreases. When you factor in advertising spend, platform fees, and other operational costs, profit margins may shrink even further.

Consequently, sellers should not focus solely on sales revenue during these events; they must also carefully evaluate the relationship between the depth of their discounts and their actual profit margins. Furthermore, if some promotional orders end up being returned, the marketing resources invested upfront may fail to translate into effective, final sales. 2. Handling Returns: The Loss Doesn’t End When the Item Is Returned

Once a consumer initiates a return, the seller may incur additional costs, including return logistics, product inspection, and repackaging.

If an item arrives with stains, damage, or missing accessories, the handling process becomes even more complex. While some products can be inspected, refurbished, and resold, others may only be sellable at a discount—or perhaps not at all. For sellers of apparel, footwear, and headwear, the condition of tags, the item’s appearance, and the state of shoe boxes or packaging can significantly impact the resale value of returned goods.

3. Inventory and Cash Flow: Items Sold in November May Return in January

Major promotional events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday take place in late November, but the process of managing returns continues long after these sales conclude. On platforms like Amazon (US), for instance, the holiday season often features an extended return window, allowing customers to initiate returns as late as January of the following year. (Specific terms depend on the platform’s policy for that year.)

This means that the sales figures a seller sees in November may not be final. As returns arrive, sellers must manage refunds, restock inventory, and inspect the condition of the returned items. If returned goods are not processed promptly, they not only occupy valuable storage space but can also hinder inventory turnover and disrupt cash flow management.

Factor Returns into Your Black Friday Stocking Strategy Now

Since the risk of returns can persist well beyond the end of a major promotional event, sellers should not base their stocking plans solely on projected front-end sales. It is essential to proactively allocate a budget for returns and establish clear, efficient handling processes.

First, estimate your return volume based on your own historical data. Return rates vary significantly depending on product category, price point, and the type of promotion used. Rather than simply applying an industry-average return rate, sellers should analyze their order volume, actual return rates, and primary reasons for returns from previous Black Friday periods—then adjust these projections based on this year’s specific promotional plans.

For categories with high return pressure—such as apparel, footwear, and headwear—sellers should pay close attention to attributes like size, style, and color to identify products prone to returns in advance.

Second, incorporate return-related costs into your promotional profit calculations. When developing a discount strategy, you must account for more than just product costs, advertising expenses, and platform fees. You should also factor in return logistics, product handling, and potential losses—such as when an item cannot be resold.

Only by incorporating these costs into your overall calculations can you accurately determine whether a promotion is truly profitable, ensuring that the pursuit of higher order volume does not come at the expense of your profit margins.

Furthermore, plan your return-handling process in advance. If a large volume of returns arrives simultaneously after a major promotional event—without a system in place for timely receipt, inspection, and categorization—you may face issues like inventory backlogs and processing delays.

Sellers should establish clear procedures for receiving returns, defining inspection standards, and determining subsequent handling steps to minimize the time between a return’s arrival and the completion of its processing.

Arrange for local return processing in the U.S. to minimize inventory stagnation.

For sellers on the U.S. marketplace, managing post-promotion returns is a critical factor in inventory turnover. If returned items must be shipped back internationally, you face both long transit times and significant logistics costs. Sellers who wish to process returns quickly—thereby preserving opportunities to resell the items—should consider utilizing a local U.S. return warehouse.

Using a service like the U-Speed US return warehouse, for example, sellers can arrange for the receipt of returns, quality inspections, relabeling, and repackaging. This allows you to stay informed about the status of returned items, facilitating better inventory management and enabling the resale of eligible products.

For instance, in the case of apparel, U-Speed can inspect items for tags, stains, or packaging issues. Products that meet the criteria for resale can be organized and repackaged, after which the seller can decide on the next steps based on their current inventory and sales strategy.

It is important to note that not all returned items can be resold. Products that are damaged, missing parts, or otherwise compromised must be categorized and handled according to their specific condition.

The value of local return processing lies not in guaranteeing that every item can be resold, but in enabling sellers to gain timely visibility into the status of returns, reducing unnecessary stagnation, and allowing for more structured, planned handling.

Events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday represent a major opportunity for cross-border sellers to boost sales, but they also serve as a rigorous test of your ability to manage profits, inventory turnover, and after-sales processes. As discounts deepen—from 14% all the way to 30%—sellers must look beyond mere sales volume. They need to account for the costs of promotional markdowns, losses from product returns, and the subsequent expenses of managing returned inventory.

By budgeting for returns in advance and establishing clear processes for receiving, inspecting, and handling inventory after a major promotional event, sellers can more accurately assess their actual earnings from Black Friday. Success on Black Friday isn’t just about moving units; it’s also about having a plan in place for how to manage products should they be returned.