Online spending during this year's U.S. holiday season is expected to hit a new record high.

Adobe’s latest forecast indicates that online sales for the 2026 U.S. holiday season (November 1 to December 31) will reach $275.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.7%. Specifically, Cyber Monday sales are projected to hit $15.1 billion, while Black Friday sales are expected to reach $12.9 billion.

However, for cross-border sellers, a shift more significant than the $275.1 billion figure itself is the fact that consumers are starting their shopping earlier.

Adobe projects that U.S. online spending in October 2026 will reach $95.8 billion, up 8% year-over-year. Notably, online spending during Prime Day (October 6–7) is expected to approach $9.9 billion. This implies that consumer demand for this year's major sales events may kick in well before Black Friday arrives.

For cross-border sellers, preparations for the peak season should also begin earlier.

With major sales events shifting to an earlier timeline, what should sellers prioritize in their preparations?

In the past, many sellers focused their Black Friday strategies on late November:

When should discounts begin?

How should the advertising budget be allocated?

Which products should be the main focus for Black Friday?

However, as consumer shopping patterns shift toward an earlier start, sellers must also adjust their preparation timelines accordingly.

First is inventory. If online spending shows significant growth in October, sellers need to re-evaluate their inventory schedules—particularly for SKUs with strong seasonal appeal or those designated as key promotional items.

Adobe forecasts that during this year's peak promotional period, online sales of personal care products will rise by 150% compared to September averages, while sales of basic apparel are expected to surge by 210%. Categories such as baby and child products, pet supplies, and home cleaning products will also see significant growth.

For these categories where demand can spike rapidly, waiting until orders start rolling in to restock often means missing the optimal window of opportunity.

Second is marketing. Competition for major sales events does not begin only on Black Friday itself. Sellers can test ad creatives, promotional offers, and key SKUs in advance, using October sales data to identify products with genuine potential. This allows them to concentrate their budgets on proven products when traffic surges during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

The third aspect involves fulfillment and after-sales service. While a rise in orders is certainly positive, sellers must also address a critical question: if order volumes spike suddenly, can I handle the subsequent fulfillment and after-sales requirements?

The higher the sales volume, the more important it is not to overlook post-promotion returns.

This is a step many sellers tend to overlook.

Increased order volumes during major promotions mean higher shipping volumes, which can lead to a subsequent rise in after-sales inquiries and returns. This is particularly true for categories like apparel, footwear, and personal care, where consumer expectations regarding the product experience vary; managing returns is an inherent part of peak-season operations.

If sellers prepare only for outbound logistics without establishing return-handling capabilities, they risk facing issues after the peak season ends—such as uncollected returns, delayed quality inspections, backlogs of returned goods, and idle inventory that could otherwise be resold.

For sellers targeting the US market, proactively establishing a reliable local return-handling process is far more strategic than waiting until the promotion ends to address the issue.

Once a consumer initiates a return, the item can be routed to a local US return warehouse, where it undergoes quality inspection and categorization based on its condition:

Undamaged/Intact → Repackaged for resale

Packaging or labeling issues → Repackaged and re-labeled

Minor defects → Repaired or refurbished

Unfit for sale → Subject to alternative disposal methods

The goal here goes beyond simply deciding "where the returns go"; it is about minimizing the loss of value associated with returned goods.

Preparing a US return warehouse in advance creates a more robust supply chain for the peak season.

Cross-border sellers who currently lack local US return-handling capabilities can partner with professional US return warehouses in advance.

U-Speed’s US return warehouses offer services such as local receipt of returns, quality inspection, photo-based reporting, repair and refurbishment, repackaging, and re-labeling. They also manage subsequent processing based on product condition, allowing eligible items to be returned to inventory for resale. This means sellers must prepare for more than just "how to sell more products"; they need to plan for the entire value chain—from consumer orders and product delivery to post-sales returns, local intake, quality inspections, and asset recovery. Every step of the process requires advance preparation.

For the 2026 US mega-sales season, don't wait until Black Friday to get ready.

Adobe projects that US online holiday sales in 2026 will reach $275.1 billion, with "Cyber Week" contributing $47.3 billion—accounting for 17.3% of total online holiday spending.

However, the peak season no longer kicks off on Black Friday. Rising consumption in October, early promotional campaigns, and the subsequent Black Friday and Cyber Monday events are continuously extending the preparation window for sellers.

So, it is worth checking these four things now:

Is inventory sufficient?

Have marketing strategies been tested in advance?

Can fulfillment operations keep up with a surge in orders?

Is there a plan in place to handle post-sale returns?

A market size of $275.1 billion represents opportunity, but it also demands greater operational capacity. True peak-season preparation goes beyond simply planning sales volume; it requires readiness for every stage of the process that follows the sale.