For cross-border e-commerce sellers in the U.S., Black Friday and Cyber Monday are critical milestones for boosting sales. Yet, while sellers focus their attention on inventory preparation, advertising, and order growth, one issue is easily overlooked: once the peak-season orders have been shipped, when will the wave of returns begin to arrive?

According to forecasts released by Adobe on September 28, online sales in the U.S. for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday in 2026 are projected to reach $6.9 billion, $12.9 billion, and $15.1 billion, respectively. Total sales for "Cyber Week" are expected to hit $47.5 billion—a 7.4% year-over-year increase.

As sales volume continues to grow, planning for post-peak-season returns becomes essential. For sellers on Amazon (U.S.), TikTok Shop, and Shopify, December is not only a peak sales period but also a time when the pressure from product returns begins to mount.

With $47.5 billion in projected Cyber Week sales, sellers cannot focus solely on order volume.

Adobe’s forecasts indicate that the U.S. year-end promotional season in 2026 will remain highly robust:

- Thanksgiving: Projected sales of $6.9 billion, up 8.5% year-over-year.

- Black Friday: Projected sales of $12.9 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year.

- Cyber Monday: Projected sales of $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year-over-year.

- Cyber Week: Total projected sales of $47.5 billion, up 7.4% year-over-year.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday create a sustained surge in consumer orders, requiring sellers to manage everything from order processing and logistics to after-sales service. However, managing a peak season requires looking beyond just front-end sales performance. Once orders are delivered, consumers may find that items don’t fit, fail to meet expectations, or are otherwise unsuitable—all of which can lead to return requests.

Therefore, when developing their peak-season sales strategies, sellers should incorporate plans for handling returns, rather than waiting until a flood of return requests arrives before seeking a solution.

Why might December bring a surge in returns following the peak sales period?

Sales and returns typically do not occur simultaneously. After placing an order, consumers go through the stages of shipping, delivery, unboxing, and product usage. Especially with the surge in orders during events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, return requests may continue to emerge for several weeks after customers receive their items.

This means there is often a time lag between the peak in sales and the peak in returns. For many sellers, December may be a critical period to closely monitor return trends.

However, a 2–4 week window should be viewed only as an initial observation period; it is not a universal return cycle applicable to all product categories or platforms. Factors such as the reasons for returns, consumer decision-making cycles, and logistics lead times vary significantly across sectors—such as apparel, home goods, and consumer electronics accessories—so sellers should base their assessments on their own historical data.

Focusing solely on sales volume during the peak season without anticipating potential returns can lead to a scenario where order growth outpaces the capacity to handle subsequent returns.

Plan for return volumes in advance to avoid a post-peak backlog.

Effective return planning for the peak season goes beyond simply securing extra storage space; it requires forecasting return volumes, the timing of arrivals at the warehouse, and the facility's actual processing capacity.

Sellers can approach these estimates from three angles:

1. Estimate return volumes based on historical data.

A simple formula can be used: Estimated Return Volume = Projected Order Volume × Historical Return Rate. For instance, if a seller expects 10,000 orders during the peak season, they can calculate the anticipated number of returns using their own historical return rate. It is important to use data specific to the same platform, similar product categories, and comparable sales periods, rather than relying on generic industry-average return rates.

2. Estimate daily arrival volumes by considering the return cycle.

Once the total return volume is estimated, the next step is to determine when these items will reach the return facility. By analyzing data from previous years—such as the timing of return requests, when items were shipped back by customers, and logistics transit times—sellers can estimate the daily volume of incoming returns and identify potential processing bottlenecks in advance.

3. Verify the processing capacity of the return facility.

If the volume of returns exceeds the warehouse's daily processing capacity, a backlog of returned goods is likely to occur. This not only increases storage costs for stagnant inventory but may also cause products to miss the critical window for re-inspection, reorganization, and processing. For sellers who need to address after-sales issues promptly, delays in handling returns can also negatively impact the consumer experience.

Therefore, it is essential to verify the receiving capacity, quality inspection turnaround time, and subsequent return-shipping arrangements of your returns warehouse *before* the peak season begins—rather than scrambling to find a facility only after a large volume of returns starts arriving.

For cross-border sellers operating in the U.S. market, U-Speed’s US returns warehouse offers local receiving and quality inspection services. Utilizing a dual-warehouse setup, the service typically completes quality inspections within two business days, with domestic return-shipping transit times ranging from 3 to 5 days. Sellers can plan their return-handling processes in advance based on their specific business needs, ensuring they stay informed about the actual condition of returned items.

What preparations should sellers make 30 days before the peak season?

As the peak sales season approaches, preparations for returns must move beyond the planning stage. Sellers targeting the U.S. market are advised to complete the following tasks in advance:

- Review historical data: Analyze past order volumes, return rates, and the timing of returns, broken down by platform and product category.

- Estimate return volume: Project the potential number of returns based on your sales targets for the upcoming peak season.

- Confirm warehouse resources: Verify the receiving capacity, quality inspection turnaround time, and return-shipping arrangements of your returns warehouse.

- Define inspection standards: Establish clear requirements for procedures such as unboxing, photographing items for documentation, and inventorying accessories.

- Plan for subsequent handling: Determine how to manage items based on their actual condition—whether through return shipping or other disposal/processing methods—to minimize long-term inventory stagnation.

While the sales growth driven by events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday is significant, the handling of returns after the peak season is equally critical to a seller’s actual operating costs.

For cross-border sellers, a returns warehouse should not be viewed merely as an after-sales remedy to be considered only after products are returned; instead, it should be an integral part of your peak-season operational strategy. By estimating return volumes and confirming warehouse processing capabilities in advance, you can handle the inevitable influx of returns with greater ease and efficiency as your order volume grows.