For cross-border e-commerce sellers targeting the U.S. market, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are not only critical milestones for boosting annual sales but also major tests of inventory management and post-sale fulfillment capabilities.

Adobe Analytics forecasts that U.S. online holiday spending from November 1 to December 31, 2026, will reach $275.1 billion—a 6.7% year-over-year increase. Within this period, online sales for Black Friday are projected to hit $12.9 billion (up 9.2% year-over-year), while Cyber Monday is expected to reach $15.1 billion (up 6.2% year-over-year).

Notably, the growth rate for Black Friday sales has surpassed that of Cyber Monday for the first time, signaling a shift in the rhythm of peak-season promotions. As sellers navigate the dual challenges of rising sales and the pressure of product returns, they must look beyond order volume and conversion rates to proactively plan for post-holiday return processing and inventory recovery.

Sustained Sales Growth Comes with Significant Return Costs

According to forecasts released by Adobe Analytics on September 28, 2026, U.S. online spending during "Cyber Week" (the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to reach $47.5 billion—a 7.4% year-over-year increase—accounting for 17.3% of total online holiday-season spending.

With Black Friday projected to generate $12.9 billion in sales (up 9.2% year-over-year) and Cyber Monday expected to reach $15.1 billion (up 6.2% year-over-year), Black Friday’s faster growth is partly driven by aggressive discounting in categories such as televisions, apparel, and home appliances, which has prompted a surge in consumer orders.

However, growth in peak-season sales does not automatically translate to a proportional increase in profit. Sellers must also pay close attention to the issue of product returns.

The "2025 Retail Returns Landscape" report, published jointly by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns, estimates that total U.S. retail returns in 2025 will reach $849.9 billion—approximately 15.8% of total retail sales—with an anticipated return rate of 19.3% for online sales.

This means that for every $100 in online sales, roughly $19.30 worth of merchandise is returned. It is important to note that the value of a returned item is not equivalent to the total loss incurred; every return can trigger additional costs related to logistics, labor, and inventory handling. For product categories with high return rates—such as apparel and electronics—the ability to process returns efficiently following a surge in peak-season orders directly impacts inventory turnover and future sales.

Returns primarily erode profit margins and inventory turnover efficiency.

The cost of returns during peak seasons extends far beyond the shipping fees paid by consumers to send items back. Sellers often face the following additional costs:

- Reverse logistics costs: Expenses incurred in transporting goods from the consumer back to the warehouse.

- Quality inspection and labor costs: Costs associated with examining the product’s appearance, accessories, and functionality to determine if it can be resold.

- Repackaging and relabeling costs: Expenses for handling items with damaged packaging or labels that no longer meet sales requirements.

- Loss in inventory value: Products may lose value due to damaged packaging, missing accessories, becoming out of season, or a decline in market price.

- Inventory carrying costs: The longer it takes to process a return, the longer it takes for the item to be restocked and made available for sale, which can negatively affect capital turnover.

If returned items remain stuck in the processing pipeline for too long, they may miss the post-holiday sales window—even if they are eventually deemed fit for resale. Therefore, when planning promotions for events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, sellers should proactively estimate a budget for returns, rather than waiting until a wave of returns arrives after the holiday season to scramble for processing resources.

Three recommended steps for peak-season return planning:

1. Incorporate return budgets into promotional costs.

Beyond advertising spend, platform commissions, storage fees, and inbound logistics costs, sellers should estimate the scale of peak-season returns by analyzing historical return rates, average order values, and specific return-handling procedures. For product categories prone to higher return rates, a more substantial budget for processing should be allocated.

2. Establish a post-holiday return-handling workflow in advance.

Define clear operational standards for each stage of the process, including receiving returns, quality inspection, categorization, relabeling, repackaging, and updating inventory records. For items that can be resold, the time elapsed between the receipt of a return and the item being made available for sale again should be minimized. For items that cannot be sold immediately, a decision regarding their subsequent disposition should be made promptly.

3. Proactive Planning for Local Return Processing in the U.S.

As order volumes surge during peak seasons, shipping all cross-border returns back to the country of origin not only inflates transportation and time costs but also extends the cycle required for products to re-enter the sales channel. Utilizing a local return warehouse in the U.S. allows sellers to streamline the return-handling process and determine the appropriate next steps based on the actual condition of each item.

U-Speed’s US Return Warehouse: Empowering Sellers with Peak-Season Return Management

Looking ahead to the 2026 U.S. holiday shopping season, establishing local return-processing capabilities in advance is a crucial step for cross-border e-commerce sellers to optimize their after-sales experience and improve inventory turnover efficiency. U-Speed’s US return warehouse provides local support, enabling sellers to handle return demand more effectively during and after the peak season.

By receiving returns locally in the U.S., sellers can alleviate the logistical pressures associated with cross-border movement and manage subsequent processing based on specific business needs. For eligible items, U-Speed offers services such as quality inspection, relabeling, and repackaging—helping sellers assess product condition and prepare items for resale.

For sellers on Amazon, eBay, or independent e-commerce websites, local return processing impacts not only logistics costs but also inventory recovery efficiency and the consumer’s post-purchase experience. Especially following major promotional events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the timely processing of returns—and the rapid restoration of sellable inventory—helps mitigate the operational strain caused by long-term, stagnant stock.

Naturally, whether an item can be resold depends on the actual quality inspection results, platform policies, and the specific condition of the product.

Competition During the Black Friday Peak Season Extends to the Returns Process

With U.S. online holiday spending projected to reach new highs in 2026, the shifting growth patterns between Black Friday and Cyber Monday serve as a reminder for sellers to re-evaluate their peak-season operational strategies. Before a promotional event, prepare sales forecasts and return budgets; during the event, focus on order fulfillment and after-sales requirements; and after the event, ensure the timely processing of returns and recovery of inventory—only then can you comprehensively evaluate your business performance during the peak season.

What truly impacts peak-season profitability is not just the volume of goods sold, but also how efficiently and appropriately returned items are handled. By planning your U.S. return process in advance—and leveraging services such as local receipt, quality inspection, relabeling, and repackaging offered by U-Speed’s U.S. return warehouses—you can be better prepared to tackle the challenges of peak-season returns, ensuring that sales growth effectively translates into tangible business results.