As the 2026 U.S. holiday shopping season approaches, cross-border e-commerce sellers face new sales opportunities—but they must also prepare for the post-holiday surge in product returns.

On October 15, the National Retail Federation (NRF) projected that U.S. holiday retail sales for November and December 2026 will reach $1.013 trillion—a 4.2% year-over-year increase and the first time the figure has surpassed the $1 trillion mark. Meanwhile, Amazon’s U.S. marketplace has announced an extended return window for the 2026 holiday season: most items purchased between November 1 and December 31 can be returned through January 31, 2027, while the return deadline for Apple-branded products is set for January 15, 2027.

This means sellers cannot focus solely on sales performance during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Christmas period; they must also incorporate post-holiday return management into their operational planning. While peak-season orders determine the scale of sales, the efficiency with which returns are handled afterward directly impacts cash flow, inventory turnover, and final profitability.

Holiday Retail Surpasses $1 Trillion: Sales Growth Does Not Equal Profit Growth

The NRF forecasts a 4.2% year-over-year increase in U.S. holiday retail sales for 2026. However, given the pressures of inflation, the cost of living, and constrained consumer budgets, spending patterns may vary across different income groups—with consumers remaining highly focused on discounts, product value, and overall purchasing worth.

For cross-border sellers, the challenges of the peak season extend beyond simply securing more orders; they also include controlling promotional costs, ensuring reliable order fulfillment, and managing the potential influx of returns following the holiday period.

According to a 2025 returns report by the NRF and Happy Returns, total U.S. retail returns for 2025 are projected to reach $849.9 billion, with an estimated 19.3% return rate for online sales. Holiday-season returns are expected to account for 17% of total holiday sales. Furthermore, the NRF notes that the majority of holiday-related returns occur in January of the following year.

These figures underscore that returns are not an issue to be addressed only after the peak season has concluded. For product categories such as apparel, footwear, headwear, home goods, and consumer electronics, sellers should—when developing promotional plans—simultaneously assess the potential additional expenses and inventory pressure that may arise from product returns.

Extended Return Windows Require Sellers to Adjust Their Timelines

Amazon’s U.S. marketplace has extended its return window, covering both Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) and Fulfillment by Merchant (FBM) orders; no separate application is required from sellers. Most items purchased between November 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, will be eligible for return until January 31, 2027. For Apple-branded products, the deadline is January 15, 2027. All items must still meet the applicable return eligibility requirements.

For sellers, this means that the post-sale processing cycle for certain peak-season orders will extend into January of the following year.

FBM sellers and those operating independent e-commerce sites—particularly those relying on cross-border return shipping—may face challenges such as long transit times, delays in quality inspections, and slow restocking processes. Even if the items are eventually recovered, the delay could result in missed post-holiday sales opportunities, leading to further losses.

Consequently, sellers should allocate resources with the return timeline in mind, rather than estimating costs solely based on historical return rates.

How Should You Calculate a Return Budget? Focus on Three Key Cost Categories

A return budget should not simply be calculated by multiplying projected sales by a historical return rate; it must also account for the costs of processing returned items and any loss in product value.

First, reverse logistics and processing costs. This includes return shipping, warehouse receiving, quality inspection, repackaging, relabeling, and associated labor expenses. Since costs vary significantly based on product category, shipping method, and warehousing services, sellers should perform calculations using actual, specific quotes.

Second, inventory devaluation and the cost of tied-up capital. If returned items are not inspected and restocked promptly, sellers may miss out on post-holiday sales. For seasonal goods, promotional items, and electronics with rapid product lifecycles, delays in processing can lead to further loss in value.

Third, after-sales and customer service costs. Managing return requests, tracking shipments, handling refund inquiries, and verifying the condition of returned items all increase the workload for customer service teams. Sellers should arrange customer service schedules for January in advance to prevent response delays during periods of high return volume.

It is recommended that sellers develop three internal plans: a return budget (tracking projected return volumes, per-unit processing costs, and potential losses); an inventory recovery plan (monitoring the receipt, quality inspection, processing, and restock status of returned items); and a January customer service schedule (allocating staffing based on historical data and defining clear procedures for handling non-standard returns).

The key to budgeting is not predicting every single return, but rather establishing clear cost caps, processing capacity limits, and inventory recovery goals in advance.

U-Speed’s US Return Warehouse: Streamlining the Return Process

With the extension of return windows, sellers need more than just a return address; they require a comprehensive local service workflow capable of receiving returns, inspecting items, and managing subsequent processing steps.

U-Speed’s US return warehouse provides cross-border e-commerce sellers with local support, including return receipt, quality inspection, relabeling, and repackaging. For eligible items, further processing can be carried out based on their actual condition, facilitating potential resale.

Compared to shipping returns back to the home country, a local return warehouse eliminates unnecessary cross-border transit, allowing for faster product inspection and inventory disposition. For sellers using the FBM (Fulfillment by Merchant) model, operating independent e-commerce sites, or looking to improve the recovery efficiency of returned inventory, local processing capabilities are well worth planning for in advance.

Please note that whether an item can be resold depends on quality inspection results, platform policies, and the actual condition of the product. Sellers should establish clear processing criteria beforehand to prevent a backlog of returned goods.

Plan for Returns Before the Peak Season Begins

U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time by 2026—a significant opportunity—but managing a peak season requires looking beyond just order growth.

From preparing for promotions in November and handling a surge in order fulfillment in December, to managing returns in January 2027, sellers must plan ahead for capital, inventory, and after-sales resources. Given the extended return windows, it is essential to align warehousing and customer service resources with a projected return timeline, rather than waiting until the returns start arriving to figure out how to handle them. Competition during the peak season is not just about sales volume; it also hinges on how effectively and promptly returned items are processed and their value recovered.

By planning a budget for returns in advance and leveraging U-Speed’s U.S.-based return warehouse services—including local receipt, quality inspection, relabeling, and repackaging—sellers can navigate post-holiday return surges with greater ease, improve inventory turnover, and better prepare for the year ahead.