Every year, the US holiday shopping season is one of the most anticipated sales windows for cross-border sellers. From Black Friday and Cyber Monday to Christmas Eve, orders are released in droves, resulting in a significant increase in sales volume. However, alongside increased sales, there is one persistent issue – returns.

The latest monitoring data from this year's holiday season shows a shift in US return trends, placing higher demands on the back-end processing capabilities of cross-border sellers.

Returns decreased in the first half of the holiday season, but this does not mean the pressure has eased.

Data shows that from November 1st to December 12th, US holiday shopping returns decreased by approximately 2.5% year-on-year. Even in the crucial seven-day window following Cyber Monday, returns only saw a slight decrease of 0.1%, showing relatively stable overall performance.

This change is closely related to the recovery in consumer spending. During the same period, overall US consumer spending increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the continued discounts of 6%-15% on categories such as toys and home appliances in December somewhat delayed the concentrated emergence of returns.

However, it's important to note that this doesn't mean a decrease in return demand, but rather a "delayed release."

A peak in returns is expected after Christmas.

Based on data analysis covering over a trillion retail website visits, a significant rebound in returns in the US is anticipated after Christmas. Overall returns could increase by 25%–35% compared to the week before the holidays, with the last week of December expected to be the peak return period of the year.

Past data confirms this trend. Last year, the last week of December alone accounted for approximately one-eighth of the total annual returns. Entering January 2025, returns in the first two weeks will still be 8%–15% higher than usual, indicating that return pressure will not immediately dissipate after the holidays.

For cross-border sellers, this means the real "test" is not during the promotional period, but after the holidays.

The changed return schedule places higher demands on sellers' backend capabilities.

Compared to concentrated order fulfillment, concentrated returns often place a greater strain on sellers' supply chain and warehousing coordination capabilities. A surge in returns shortly after the holiday can lead to several problems if not handled promptly:

Returned goods remain unsold for extended periods, resulting in unclear inventory status; Resaleable items miss their optimal relisting window; Cross-border returns to China are costly and time-consuming; Return data from multiple platforms is difficult to synchronize in a timely manner.

Especially in high-selling holiday categories like apparel, home appliances, and toys, a significant portion of returned goods often still have resale value. The key is the ability to quickly receive, inspect, and distribute them.

US-based return warehouses have become a crucial buffer against the post-holiday peak.

In this context, the value of US-based return warehouses is increasingly recognized by sellers. Compared to cross-border returns, domestic warehouses can complete receiving and initial processing of goods much faster, helping sellers quickly grasp the true inventory status.

By using return warehouses for quality inspection and sorting, sellers can have more flexibility in deciding on subsequent processing methods, whether it's relisting, replenishing stock, or centralized processing—all offering greater control over the process compared to cross-border shipments.

U-Speed's US returns warehouse Regional Layout and Processing Capacity

To meet the post-holiday returns demand in the US market, U-Speed has returns warehouses in both the East and West coasts, covering major consumer and logistics hubs.

The U-Speed East Coast (New Jersey) returns warehouse has a total area of approximately 7,250 square meters and a daily processing capacity of over 20,000 items. The U-Speed West Coast (Los Angeles) returns warehouse also has an area of 7,250 square meters and a daily processing capacity of over 10,000 items, capable of handling the concentrated returns period after the holidays.

Both warehouses are equipped with forklifts, light and heavy-duty shelving, fire protection and monitoring facilities, and implement 24-hour security and CCTV system management, providing a stable and safe operating environment for returned goods.

During the post-holiday returns period, quality inspection and timeliness control are paramount.

During peak returns periods, speed is often more important than scale. U-Speed's US return warehouse standardizes its return processing workflow, with a 2-day quality inspection timeline to help sellers quickly assess product status. The overall return logistics timeline is controlled within 3-5 days to avoid prolonged backlogs.

In terms of staffing, the process design is led by the China return business management team, while the local Chinese team in the US handles the actual operations, working in conjunction with a professional customer service team to ensure process stability even during peak periods.

From returns to re-transfer, reducing the pressure of multiple intermediaries

In addition to return services, U-Speed also provides US cross-border forward logistics services, covering first-leg shipping, warehousing, and dropshipping. For products with sales potential after the holidays, subsequent arrangements can be made based on the seller's actual operational rhythm after quality inspection.

This "returns + forward logistics" combination model helps sellers reduce the costs of multiple intermediaries during peak return periods, creating a closed loop between inventory management and subsequent sales.

Post-holiday returns determine more than just costs.

Looking at the trends from this year's holiday season, returns haven't disappeared; they've simply been postponed to a more concentrated period after the holidays. For cross-border sellers, the ability to maintain a stable pace during this phase often directly impacts their final annual profit performance.

Planning return handling strategies in advance and choosing suitable US return warehouses to build a buffer before the peak of returns arrives has become a real challenge that more and more sellers must face after the holiday season.