Every year after the holiday season, the US e-commerce market enters a recurring phase—a surge in returns. This year's situation is no exception and warrants close attention from cross-border sellers.

According to Adobe's latest holiday shopping data analysis, while US consumer returns have slowed somewhat in recent periods since the 2025 holiday season, this doesn't mean overall return pressure has truly decreased. On the contrary, the post-Christmas return peak remains highly certain.

Returns Declined Before the Holiday Season, But the Trend Remains Unchanged

Data from Adobe shows that from November 1st to December 12th, US online shopping returns decreased by approximately 2.5% year-over-year. This period covers the period around Black Friday and the early stages of holiday shopping, leading many sellers to view it as "returns performing better than expected."

However, further analysis reveals that this decline is narrowing significantly. In the seven days following Black Friday (Cyber Week), returns decreased by only 0.1% year-over-year, almost flat compared to last year. This means that returns haven't decreased, but rather have been temporarily postponed.

Adobe also explicitly stated in its report that the current slowdown in returns does not indicate an overall reduction in return pressure during the holiday season.

A surge in returns after Christmas is almost inevitable.

Historically, the period after Christmas is typically the peak return window of the year. Adobe predicts that from December 26th to December 31st, overall returns in the US will be 25%–35% higher than the period from November 1st to December 12th.

This assessment is not unique. Past data also shows that the week following Christmas often accounts for a significant proportion of the total annual returns. Inappropriate gifts, mismatched sizes, returns after trying on products, and changes in purchase decisions after impulse buying all tend to occur in large numbers after the holidays.

For cross-border sellers, this means the real pressure point is not during the holiday season order fulfillment phase, but rather in the short window immediately following the holidays.

The Real Impact of Peak Returns on Cross-Border Sellers

The concentrated arrival of returns has far more impact on sellers than simply "order returns." Especially in the US market, if return processing gets out of control, it can easily trigger a series of chain reactions:

Backlog of returned goods and unclear inventory status;

Missing the optimal resale time for resaleable goods;

Significantly increased logistics costs and processing times for cross-border returns to China;

Difficulty in timely data and accounting management for simultaneous returns from multiple platforms.

More importantly, a significant portion of returned goods are actually undamaged and still sellable. Without proper handling, this potential value can easily be wasted.

Advance preparation is key to dealing with post-holiday returns.

From a timing perspective, the post-Christmas return peak has almost no buffer period, typically concentrated within a week. For cross-border sellers, the truly effective approach is advance planning, not last-minute measures.

A crucial point here is: Having the capability to process returns within the US. Handling returns receiving, inspecting, and sorting locally is more efficient and cost-effective than cross-border shipping, and better suited to the high-density return volume after the holidays.

US-based return warehouses become a crucial support during peak periods.

During peak return periods, US-based return warehouses act as a "buffer." Returned goods are received and initially processed locally, allowing sellers to quickly grasp the true inventory situation and decide on subsequent processing based on the product's condition.

This model is particularly suitable for sellers with concentrated post-holiday returns, complex SKUs, and a high proportion of resaleable items.

U-Speed's US return warehouse Network Layout and Processing Capacity

To meet the return demand in the US market, U-Speed has return warehouses in both the East and West coasts, covering major consumer areas.

The U-Speed East Coast (New Jersey) return warehouse has a total area of approximately 7,250 square meters and a daily processing capacity of over 20,000 items; the U-Speed West Coast (Los Angeles) return warehouse also has an area of 7,250 square meters and a daily processing capacity of over 10,000 items, capable of handling the concentrated return demand after Christmas.

Both warehouses are fully equipped with hardware and software, including forklifts, light and heavy-duty shelving, fire monitoring facilities, and 24-hour security and CCTV system management, providing a stable foundation for handling returns during peak periods.

Timeliness and processes are key to the post-holiday return phase.

During peak return periods, processing speed directly impacts cost control. U-Speed's US return warehouse prioritizes efficiency and stability in its process design. Return quality inspection takes 2 days, helping sellers quickly confirm product status; subsequent overall return logistics takes 3-5 days, avoiding prolonged delays.

In terms of personnel structure, the Chinese return business management team leads process standardization, while the local Chinese team in the US handles actual operations, collaborating with a professional customer service team to follow up and communicate, ensuring smooth processes even during peak periods.

From returns to forward logistics, reducing the pressure of multiple intermediaries.

In addition to return services, U-Speed also provides US cross-border forward logistics services, covering first-leg shipping, warehousing, and drop shipping. In the post-holiday period, this combination of "returns + forward logistics" helps sellers reduce the management costs associated with switching between multiple suppliers.

For cross-border sellers, post-holiday returns are not the real problem; the real problem is the lack of a stable and actionable solution. Establishing local return processing capabilities in advance is often the most realistic and effective way to cope with the post-Christmas return peak.